What Is the Biosimilar Pegfilgrastim Market Opportunity?

We’ve covered the contest to bring a biosimilar pegfilgrastim to market, with considerable depth. The progress and setbacks of Mylan/Biocon, Coherus Biosciences, Sandoz, and Apotex have been tracked. Other drug makers are also working on plans towards 351(k) applications for approval. Eventually—likely sooner than later—one or two will hit the market.

Biosimilar Pegfilgrastim, Neulasta®, and Onpro®

Amgen, maker of the originator product Neulasta®, disclosed in its first-quarter financial report that the total sales for the product in the US is $1.0 billion, $146 million for the rest of the world, for a total of $1.15 billion. This means a US market of approximately $4 billion for one year of sales. Amgen also noted that 62% of its first-quarter Neulasta sales are associated with its Onpro® kit. Although the major patents for pegfilgrastim have expired, Onpro is still protected by patent. Onpro does have some significant advantages in that the patient does not need to go to the doctor’s office for an injection after receiving chemotherapy. The sales figures indicate that doctors prescribe it in preference to the injectable form of pegfilgrastim.

Neulasta OnproAt a current 62% marketshare for Neulasta Onpro, the initial total slice of the pie available for biosimilars may only be $1.5 billion (not considering WAC discounts). If we assume a 20% discount, this may be closer to $1.2 billion. It may not seem logical for Amgen to make great efforts to defend its share of injectable pegfilgrastim because of its successful conversion to Onpro. Also, Onpro does have marketable advantages over the injectable form.

The list price of Neulasta is upwards of $7000 per injection, and Amgen does not charge additionally for the Onpro kit. This stance may prove an incentive to health plans and insurers to not encourage biosimilar use over Onpro.

Will Physicians Resist Moving From Onpro to a Biosimilar Pegfilgrastim Injection?

The $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion estimate also assumes that Amgen cannot convert more patients to Onpro prior to approval of a new biosimilar. That would further shrink the revenue opportunity. Physicians may also resist payer efforts and not prescribe the injectable form if they favor the Onpro kit. To the extent that payers may prefer the biosimilar (or otherwise restrict the use of a more expensive originator agent) when it becomes available, that slice of the pie could increase quite a bit. Furthermore, the picture could also change in a few years as biosimilar manufacturers develop delivery systems that gain the same advantages as Onpro.

In its earnings report, Amgen indicated the sales of Neulasta have been decreasing, by 5% from the same quarter last year. This may be the result of movement to other, less-toxic cancer chemotherapies or other treatments to prevent neutropenia and its related infections.

The Onpro market for the rest of the world may be given a boost soon, as Amgen also announced that the European Medicines Agency issued a positive opinion for the drug maker to include the Onpro Kit in its EU label.

As reported in BR&R, Coherus CEO Denny Lanfear thought the pegfilgrastim market may be split in a manner similar to that for filgrastim (i.e., 30%/30%/40% shares for 2 biosimilar makers and the originator). That may possibly mean 30% of a $1.2 billion US market (not $4 billion), if payers do not emphasize the use of the biosimilar over Onpro.

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